March Madness 2023 Predictions: Best Upset Picks for Every Region (2024)

All shining moments start here.

Though the play button in the CBS control room won't be pressed for 19 more days, the highlights that will sync with the opening notes are already right there on the bracket.

It's up to you to find them.

Unmasking Cinderella is by far and away the best part of the Big Dance. And while picking winners based on uniform colors or best friend alma maters is a convenient strategy, you're far more likely to hit on upset specials by incorporating some basketball smarts.

Luckily for you, it's our mission to provide an advance nudge toward the likeliest surprises.

For these purposes, that means a hearty handful of No. 10 seeds or lower, all of which we're willing to stake our professional reputations on. Or something like that.

Good luck.

OK, when we say upset, we mean upset.

And this one's all about momentum.

The 13th-seeded Ragin' Cajuns are the champions of the Sun Belt Conference, having won three straight tournament games by nearly 10 points apiece after ending their regular season with home victories against Arkansas State and South Alabama.

They're led in points (19.4), rebounds (8.7) and blocks (1.2) by 6'11" junior forward Jordan Brown, who had 10 double-doubles in 32 games, including five in his last six.

Meanwhile, the Volunteers were ranked as high as No. 2 in the country early in the season but won just five of their final 12 games since February 1, including an eight-point loss to Missouri in the second round of the SEC playoff tournament.

And they're just 2-2 in four games since sophom*ore point guard Zakai Zeigler was lost for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee. His absence has created issues with rhythm on the offensive side for the Volunteers, and Tennessee's defense was dented for 38 points in the paint against the Tigers—a problem Brown and Co. will be happy to exploit as well.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 21.6 percent

The Paladins, who represent South Carolina's oldest private university, are a product of pace.

They've won 27 games overall and 14 of their last 15, including defeats of Mercer, Western Carolina and Chattanooga, to clinch their first Southern Conference title in 43 years.

They hung 88 points in the conference finale and are 11th in the country with a per-game clip of 82.1. It's a significant contrast from Virginia, which was held to 49 points in losing to Duke in the ACC final and has only topped 80 twice in 32 games.

What it'll likely come down to is the Cavaliers' defense, which held foes to 41.7 percent shooting—good for third in the ACC compared to its 13th-place standing in scoring.

Furman seniors Mike Bothwell, a 6'3" guard, and Jalen Slawson, a 6'7" forward, are 1-2 on the team in scoring and both average better than 50 percent from the field. Their production will be a determining factor in whether the Paladins can score, defend and press the tempo.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 19.2 percent

If you listen closely, you can almost hear the old-school Big East rumbles.

Iona coach Rick Pitino was a product of the historic conference's golden age, when he led a scrappy Providence team to the Final Four while riding the coattails of senior point guard and future assistant Billy Donovan. That was 36 years ago. But the vibe is still relevant.

Pitino's Gaels come in as a No. 13 seed against UConn, which beat Providence and lost to Marquette in this year's Big East tournament and arrives as the West Region's No. 4.

Iona goes nine deep in its rotation, has big-school size up front with 6'9" junior forward Nelly Junior Joseph and 7'0" senior forward Osborn Shema, and can cause intense competitive headaches with full-court pressure defense. It's a place where the Huskies have displayed a particular vulnerability, averaging 12.9 turnovers per game.

The matchup was announced Sunday. The game is Friday. And if anyone's capable of slaying a tournament giant with five days to draw up a plan, it's Pitino.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 20.2 percent

We are what we repeatedly do. Therefore, excellence is not an act but a habit.

Whether you've mistakenly attributed those words to Aristotle, Socrates or Vince Lombardi, they've got context in the East Region first-rounder involving Oral Roberts University.

What the Golden Eagles from Tulsa, Oklahoma, do, repeatedly, is win.

And though they're in tough with a fifth-seeded Duke team that's won nine straight, it's the prolonged habit of winning—30 times in 34 games, and 17 in a row since early January, to be exact—that will turn things in their favor come Thursday night.

Oral Roberts boasts the nation's seventh-leading scorer in 6'1" senior guard Max Abmas, who averages 22.2 points per game, hits better than 90 percent of his free throws and is a legitimate threat from three-point distance (37.7 percent).

He was a breakout performer as a sophom*ore when the Golden Eagles reached the Sweet 16 two years ago, and it will be him, and the other holdovers from that 2021 run, that will be more than capable of handling a spotlight duel with the vaunted Blue Devils.

"We understand what it takes," Abmas said, per Sports Illustrated's Kevin Sweeney.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 44.2 percent

Drake University is not, and has never been, on college basketball's A-list.

The Bulldogs hail from Des Moines, Iowa, play in the Missouri Valley Conference and have reached the tournament exactly five times in 54 years prior to this season.

But by the time the weekend (or at least the work week) is over, you'll know them.

They've won 13 of 14 games since mid-January and captured the MVC tournament and its automatic berth with consecutive defeats of Murray State, Southern Illinois and Bradley. The Bradley win, in fact, came by 26 points and erased Drake's only loss in two months.

The Braves were thus dispatched to the NIT while the Bulldogs dance in Albany, New York.

Sophom*ore Tucker DeVries is a 6'7" guard who averages 19 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, and he's the only non-senior in a veteran starting lineup that also includes a 6'10", 275-pounder in Darnell Brodie, which means Drake can compete with Miami up front.

It won't hurt the upset cause that the Hurricanes' best forward, 6'7" sophom*ore Norchad Omier, may not play because of an ankle injury suffered in the ACC tournament.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 34.5 percent

If it's good for Oral Roberts, it's good for the College of Charleston, too.

And by that we mean the in-season habit of simply winning, which the Cougars have done 31 times in 34 games, including 20 straight in a November-to-January skein that followed a non-conference loss to then-top-ranked North Carolina in the schedule's second game.

The most recent momentum has yielded 10 more victories, including Colonial Athletic Association tournament defeats of Stony Brook, Towson and UNC Wilmington.

Charleston has thrived in no small part because of its depth, which means a nine-deep rotation of players who average at least 15 minutes per game. Five of those nine have double-digit scoring averages, and seven of them connect on at least 30 percent of their three-point attempts, which means the Cougars are aiming to set the tempo and shoot the basketball.

It may feel like death by a thousand cuts by the time it's over for the Aztecs, who will need to rebound and limit shots against a frenetic foe that averages both more points (80.8 to 72.1) and more boards (40.5 to 35.7) per 40 minutes.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 37.3 percent

Sometimes, the stories write themselves.

A year ago at this time, Bryce Hopkins was a little-used tool in Kentucky coach John Calipari's box, averaging just more than six minutes and two points per game.

A year later, he's a starting forward on a Providence team that earned an at-large bid, and he averages nearly 35 minutes with better than 16 points and eight rebounds.

And guess who he's playing against on Friday night?

Yes, indeed, the Friars and Wildcats will tangle in an East Region first-rounder that simply reeks of personal revenge.

Kentucky was expected to reside among the national elite this season but instead stumbled through inconsistency and lost two of its last three games, including a first-round elimination by Vanderbilt in last week's SEC tournament.

As for Providence, it toppled three nationally-ranked teams during the regular season, including a 73-61 rout of then-No. 4 UConn in which Hopkins scored 27 points. He had 29 in a defeat of No. 24 Marquette and 20 against No. 18 Creighton, too, and it's easy to figure he'll be especially primed for another breakout in Greensboro.

Odds to reach the round of 32: 33.7 percent

Tournament history is littered with tales of accomplished players on anonymous teams who raise their games for a night or two and create nationwide bracket upheaval.

Jalen Pickett is about to be one of those players for Penn State.

The 6'4" senior from Rochester, New York, has his name strewn across the Nittany Lions' scoresheets, leading the team in scoring (17.9), rebounds (7.3), assists (6.7) and steals (1.0), not to mention a 51.6-percent shooting clip and a 38.3 percent rate from three-point distance.

He led the team in scoring 18 times in 35 games this season, including defeats of 17th-ranked Illinois (20), 21st-ranked Maryland (16) and 19th-ranked Indiana (28). The latter game was the second of two wins that got Penn State to the Big Ten tournament final against Purdue.

He'll surely need some assistance from 6'7" backcourt mate Seth Lundy (14.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG) to get past a Texas A&M squad that placed second in the SEC playoffs, but we'll close our eyes, give the crystal ball a final jiggle and forecast a dramatic Pickett buzzer-beater.

Round progression odds via ESPN.com